Retail e-commerce sales worldwide are forecast at $6.880 trillion in 2026, equal to 21.1% of all retail spending, per EMARKETER’s February 2025 forecast. US online sales reached $326.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. Below: market size, the fastest-growing countries, platform GMV, how shoppers pay, and what pushes them out of the checkout.
E-Commerce Market
How Big Is The E-Commerce Market In 2026?
EMARKETER’s February 2025 forecast puts worldwide retail e-commerce sales at $6.880 trillion in 2026, a 7.2% gain on the $6.419 trillion estimated for 2025.
Growth in 2025 ran at 6.8%, the slowest pace since 2022. EMARKETER attributes that slowdown mostly to weakness in China’s economy and trade-war stress.
Online sales made up 19.9% of global retail in 2024 and 20.5% in 2025. The forecast reaches 22.5% by 2028.
| Year | Retail e-commerce sales | YoY change | Share of total retail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $5.080 trillion | +5.9% | Not published |
| 2023 | $5.580 trillion | +9.6% | Not published |
| 2024 | $6.007 trillion | +7.7% | 19.9% |
| 2025 | $6.419 trillion | +6.8% | 20.5% |
| 2026 | $6.880 trillion | +7.2% | 21.1% |
| 2027 | $7.375 trillion | +7.2% | Not published |
| 2028 | $7.886 trillion | +6.9% | 22.5% |
Source: EMARKETER Forecast, February 2025. Figures for 2025 onward are EMARKETER projections.
Three markets carry most of the total. China, the United States and Western Europe together accounted for 80.5% of global sales in 2025, worth more than $5.17 trillion, according to EMARKETER. Seven countries passed $100 billion in e-commerce sales that year.
China alone moves the global average. Online reached 20% of total retail sales worldwide in 2025; strip China out and the figure drops to 12.8%. Alibaba’s rise since 1999 tracks much of that shift.
E-Commerce Market Share Of US Retail Sales
The Census Bureau put US retail e-commerce at $326.7 billion in Q1 2026, seasonally adjusted, on total retail sales of $1,929.0 billion. That works out to 16.9% of retail.
Online sales grew 9.8% year over year in the quarter. Total retail grew 3.9% over the same period, the widest gap in the five quarters shown below.
One caveat on comparisons: the April 2025 benchmark revised the series, and Census flags Q1 2025, Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 as revised or preliminary.
| Quarter | E-commerce sales | Total retail sales | E-commerce share | YoY e-commerce growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 (r) | $297.70 billion | $1,857.20 billion | 16.0% | +5.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $304.46 billion | $1,865.82 billion | 16.3% | +5.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $310.82 billion | $1,893.29 billion | 16.4% | +5.3% |
| Q4 2025 (r) | $318.00 billion | $1,900.65 billion | 16.7% | +5.9% |
| Q1 2026 (p) | $326.74 billion | $1,929.03 billion | 16.9% | +9.8% |
Source: US Census Bureau, Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, adjusted sales time series, release CB26-81, May 18 2026. (r) revised, (p) preliminary.
For the full year 2025, Census recorded $1,233.7 billion in US e-commerce sales, up 5.4% on 2024, or 16.4% of total retail sales. Chains that opened online arms late, including Target’s move into digital retail, now compete inside that same 16-point slice.
Which E-Commerce Market Is Growing Fastest?
Growth has moved away from the two largest markets. EMARKETER’s 2025 country figures put the Philippines at 23% and Thailand at 20%, well ahead of anything in Western Europe.
More than 75% of internet users shopped online in 2024. By 2028, EMARKETER projects half the world’s population aged 14 and over will be online shoppers.
E-Commerce Market Leaders By GMV
ECDB ranks retailers by gross merchandise value, the total worth of goods sold through a platform. Amazon led in 2025, with two Chinese platforms directly behind it.
| Rank | Retailer | 2025 GMV | Growth 24/25 | Largest category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amazon | US$847,350m | 5–10% | Electronics |
| 2 | Pinduoduo | US$780,450m | 5–10% | Grocery |
| 3 | Tiktok Shop | US$656,449m | 20–25% | Fashion |
Source: ECDB, Top Online Retailers in the World, 2025 GMV, accessed August 2026.
GMV is not company revenue. On its own books, Amazon reported net sales of $716.9 billion for 2025, up 12% on $638.0 billion in 2024. Concentration is rising: ECDB’s June 2026 analysis puts the top five platforms at 56% of global GMV in 2025, against 48% in 2022.
Older platforms sit far below that tier. eBay, founded in 1995, and Walmart’s retail network both predate the current ranking’s leaders by decades.
How Shoppers Pay In The E-Commerce Market
Digital wallets took 56% of global e-commerce transaction value in 2025 and 33% of in-store spending, per the 11th Global Payments Report from Worldpay, now Global Payments, which surveyed more than 63,000 consumers across 42 markets.
The regional spread is wide. Asia-Pacific runs at 77%, India at 68%, the US at 40%.
Inside the US, wallets have already passed credit cards online, though cards still lead at the physical till, where credit takes 40% of point-of-sale value and wallets 17%.
| Payment method | Share of US e-commerce value | Share of US in-store value |
|---|---|---|
| Digital wallets | 40% | 17% |
| Credit cards | 32% | 40% |
| Debit cards | 16% | 28% |
| Buy now, pay later | 6% | Not published |
Source: Worldpay, now Global Payments, Global Payments Report 2026, transaction value shares for 2025.
Buy now, pay later has grown 130-fold globally since 2014, from $2.3 billion in transaction value to an estimated $300 billion. Direct crypto payments remain marginal at 0.19% of global transaction value. Card networks are not going anywhere either, as Mastercard’s six decades of processing and PayPal’s checkout footprint both show.
Why Carts Get Abandoned
Baymard Institute puts the average documented cart abandonment rate at 70.22%, an average of 50 separate studies whose individual results run from 55.00% to 84.27%.
A further 42% of US online shoppers say they abandoned because they were just browsing. Setting that group aside leaves the reasons below, from a multi-select survey, so the shares do not total 100%.
| Reason for abandonment | Share of US online shoppers |
|---|---|
| Extra costs too high (shipping, tax, fees) | 40% |
| Delivery was too slow | 20% |
| I didn’t trust the site with my credit card information | 19% |
| The site wanted me to create an account | 18% |
| Too long / complicated checkout process | 17% |
| Website had errors / crashed | 17% |
| Returns policy wasn’t satisfactory | 13% |
| I couldn’t see / calculate total order cost up-front | 12% |
| The credit card was declined | 10% |
| There weren’t enough payment methods | 9% |
Source: Baymard Institute, reasons for abandonment (excluding “just browsing”), multi-select, last updated September 22 2025.
Checkout length is measurable. Baymard’s benchmark database shows the average US checkout displays 23.48 form elements by default, against the 12 to 14 its testing finds workable.
Baymard estimates better checkout design alone can lift conversion 35.26% for the average large site, worth $260 billion in recoverable orders on combined US and EU e-commerce sales of $738 billion.
E-Commerce Market Outlook To 2030
EMARKETER forecasts $7.375 trillion in worldwide sales for 2027 and $7.886 trillion for 2028, when online reaches 22.5% of total retail.
Worldpay expects payment apps to carry 46% of global point-of-sale value by 2030, worth $15.6 trillion, and BNPL to reach $500 billion of global e-commerce value in the same year.
FAQs
How big is the e-commerce market in 2026?
Retail e-commerce sales worldwide are forecast at $6.880 trillion in 2026, up 7.2% on 2025, per EMARKETER’s February 2025 forecast. That equals 21.1% of total global retail sales.
What percentage of US retail sales happen online?
E-commerce accounted for 16.9% of US retail sales in Q1 2026, seasonally adjusted, per the Census Bureau. Online sales were $326.7 billion against $1,929.0 billion in total retail.
Which platform has the highest GMV?
Amazon led ECDB’s 2025 ranking at US$847,350m in gross merchandise value, ahead of Pinduoduo at US$780,450m and Tiktok Shop at US$656,449m. GMV measures goods sold through a platform, not company revenue.
Is the cart abandonment rate people quote on Reddit accurate?
Reddit threads usually cite around 70%, which matches the source. Baymard Institute documents an average of 70.22% across 50 studies, with individual results between 55.00% and 84.27%.
Do Reddit sellers overstate how much digital wallets matter?
The published data supports them. Digital wallets took 56% of global e-commerce transaction value in 2025 and 40% in the US, ahead of credit cards at 32%, per Worldpay’s Global Payments Report 2026.
Sources
https://www.emarketer.com/content/ecommerce-account-more-than-20–of-worldwide-retail-sales-despite-slowdown
https://www.census.gov/retail/ecommerce.html
https://www.globalpayments.com/insights/gpr
https://baymard.com/lists/cart-abandonment-rate
