The ICO composite indicator price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026, down 2.8% from May. Between February and May 2025 the same index averaged 343.08 cents, the highest nominal level the ICO has recorded. This post sets out coffee market prices, world supply, export flows, Brazil’s incoming crop and US drinking habits, using figures published by the ICO, USDA and the National Coffee Association.
Coffee Market Statistics 2026
Coffee Market Prices Through June 2026
November 2025 was the peak of the past twelve months at 330.44 cents per pound. June 2026 was the trough at 248.90.
The June average hides the shape of the month. Prices fell to 231.96 cents on 9 June, the lowest in nearly two years, then rebounded 17.4% to a two-month high of 272.39 cents by the close.
Source: International Coffee Organization, Coffee Market Report, June 2026 (monthly averages, July 2025 to June 2026)
Coffee Market Prices By Coffee Group
Robustas gained while Brazilian Naturals lost ground, narrowing the gap between them to 102.62 cents from a month earlier.
| Indicator | June 2026 (US cents/lb) | Change vs May 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Colombian Milds | 324.60 | +0.4% |
| Other Milds | 307.83 | -2.4% |
| Brazilian Naturals | 272.01 | -7.4% |
| Robustas | 169.39 | +1.7% |
| New York futures (Arabicas) | 256.75 | -4.3% |
| London futures (Robusta) | 155.90 | +2.7% |
Source: International Coffee Organization, Coffee Market Report, June 2026 (monthly average daily indicator and futures prices)
What Moved The Coffee Market In June 2026?
The ICO names weather as the principal driver, with two announcements bracketing the turn on 9 June.
The Japan Meteorological Agency on 10 June and NOAA on 11 June both put confidence in a Super El Niño developing at the end of 2026 at 67%, which the ICO describes as the highest confidence level on record.
Somar Meteorologia then measured 31.3 mm of rain in Minas Gerais in the week ending 28 June, equal to 1,956% of the historical average for a period that is normally dry season.
Safras & Mercado put Brazil’s harvest at 44% complete on 24 June, against 51% a year earlier and a five-year average of 47%.
Deliverable supply was thin at the same time. Combined ICE-certified stocks closed June at 1.09 million bags, the lowest since February 2024.
Source: International Coffee Organization, Coffee Market Report, June 2026 (certified stocks on the New York and London futures markets, July 2025 to June 2026)
Coffee Market Supply: Production, Consumption And Stocks
USDA forecasts record world production for 2025/26 and record consumption in the same year. Stocks absorb the difference between the two, and they have been falling since 2021/22.
| Measure, 2025/26 forecast | Million 60-kg bags | Note |
|---|---|---|
| World production | 178.8 | Up 3.5 million on 2024/25, a record |
| World consumption | 173.9 | Record |
| World bean exports | 123.8 | Up 2.3 million on 2024/25 |
| World ending stocks | 20.1 | Fifth consecutive annual fall |
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Coffee: World Markets and Trade, December 2025 circular (2025/26 forecast). USDA scheduled its next edition for 22 July 2026.
Roasters including Nestlé and Starbucks draw on the same five origins that dominate this balance.
On the same series, ending stocks stood at 31.94 million bags in 2021/22 and are forecast at 20.15 million for 2025/26.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Coffee: World Markets and Trade, December 2025 circular (production by country, 2025/26 forecast; world ending stocks, 2021/22 to 2025/26)
Coffee Market Exports By Group And Form
Exports of all forms reached 94.82 million bags from October 2025 to May 2026, down 0.1% year on year, while Robusta volumes rose 9.8% and Brazilian Naturals fell 15.9%.
| Group, Oct 2025 to May 2026 | Thousand 60-kg bags | Change on year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Robustas | 40,293 | +9.8% |
| Brazilian Naturals | 26,582 | -15.9% |
| Other Milds | 19,152 | +16.1% |
| Colombian Milds | 8,788 | -13.3% |
| Total, all forms | 94,815 | -0.1% |
Source: International Coffee Organization, Coffee Market Report, June 2026 (exports of all forms of coffee, coffee year to date, October 2025 to May 2026)
Green beans made up 86.5% of exports over the same eight months, with soluble at 13.0% and roasted at 0.5%. Green bean shipments came to 82.03 million bags, down 1.1%.
Source: International Coffee Organization, Coffee Market Report, June 2026 (share of total exports by form, October 2025 to May 2026)
Which Origins Are Shifting The Coffee Market?
Arabica’s share of green bean exports fell to 60.2% in the first eight months of 2025/26 from 64.0% a year earlier. On a 12-month moving average the share reached 60.95% in May 2026, the lowest since April 2015.
Colombia’s federation of coffee growers, the FNC, forecast output of 12.8 million bags for 2025/26 against 14.87 million in 2024/25, and reported monthly production down 26.3% on average between December 2025 and April 2026.
India ran the other way, with exports up 33.7% in May 2026 and a year-to-date total of 5.11 million bags.
Brazil’s 2026/27 Crop And The Coffee Market Outlook
Three official forecasts differ on the size of Brazil’s incoming crop.
| Forecaster, 2026/27 crop | Total | Arabica | Robusta |
|---|---|---|---|
| USDA Post Brasilia | 71.9 | 47.5 | 24.4 |
| CONAB | 66.7 | 45.7 | 20.9 |
| IBGE | 65.1 | 44.0 | 21.0 |
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Brazil Coffee Annual (BR2026-0025), 1 June 2026, million 60-kg bags, marketing year 2026/27
USDA’s Brasilia post forecasts Brazilian arabica at 47.5 million bags, a 25% rise, and robusta at 24.4 million, down from 25 million. Total exports are forecast at 49.07 million bags, 30% above the 2025/26 estimate.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Brazil Coffee Annual (BR2026-0025), 1 June 2026, marketing years 2022/23 to 2026/27
US Coffee Market Demand: How Many Americans Drink Coffee?
Past-day and past-week coffee drinking have not moved since 2022, at 66% and 73% of American adults. The NCA puts weekly drinkers at nearly 195 million adults and daily volume at about 507 million cups.
| Metric, Spring 2026 | Value |
|---|---|
| Drank coffee in the past day | 66% |
| Drank coffee in the past week | 73% |
| Average cups per day per drinker | 2.8 |
| Past-day drinkers who drank coffee at home | 85% |
| Past-day drinkers who drank coffee out of home | 36% |
| Past-day consumption, Northeast | 75% |
| Past-day consumption, West | 68% |
| Past-day consumption, South | 66% |
| Past-day consumption, Midwest | 57% |
Source: National Coffee Association, Spring 2026 National Coffee Data Trends, fieldwork by Dig Insights, 5 to 20 January 2026, 1,850 US adults aged 18 and over
Coffee led every other drink measured in past-day consumption. Respondents could report more than one beverage, so these shares do not sum to a market.
Drip machines served 37% of past-day drinkers at home and single-cup machines 28%, the format built out by Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. Ready-to-drink coffee, where Coca-Cola competes through Costa and Georgia, accounted for 15%.
Workplaces took 14% of past-day drinkers, in-transit locations 13% and eating places 10%, the ground contested by Starbucks and its main rivals.
Fieldwork ran in January, and 78% of the previous day’s cups were served hot.
Source: National Coffee Association, Spring 2026 National Coffee Data Trends (temperature of past-day cups, fieldwork 5 to 20 January 2026)
Specialty Vs Traditional Coffee In The US Market
Specialty coffee reached 47% of American adults in past-day consumption, ahead of traditional coffee at 42%, according to the 2026 NCDT Specialty Coffee Report published by the NCA with the Specialty Coffee Association in July 2026.
Over a past-week window the ranking flips, with traditional coffee at 62% and specialty at 58%. Traditional is unchanged since 2022; specialty was 53% then.
Among 25 to 39 year olds, 69% had specialty coffee in the past week, the highest of any age group.
FAQs
What is the current coffee market price?
The ICO composite indicator price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026, down 2.8% from May 2026. It hit 231.96 cents on 9 June before closing the month at 272.39 cents.
Is there a global coffee shortage in 2026?
USDA forecasts record world production of 178.8 million bags for 2025/26 alongside record consumption of 173.9 million. Ending stocks are forecast at 20.1 million bags, a fifth consecutive annual fall.
Do Reddit threads about falling coffee prices match the data?
On the price index, yes. June 2026 averaged 248.90 cents per pound against 343.08 cents averaged from February to May 2025. Reddit posts about shelf prices describe retail, which this index does not measure.
Why does Reddit say robusta is taking over?
Robusta exports rose 9.8% to 40.29 million bags from October 2025 to May 2026, while arabica’s share of green bean exports fell to 60.2% from 64.0%. On a 12-month average that share is the lowest since April 2015.
How many Americans drink coffee every day?
66% of US adults drank coffee in the past day in the Spring 2026 National Coffee Data Trends survey of 1,850 adults, unchanged since 2022. Drinkers averaged 2.8 cups per day.
Sources
https://www.ico.org/documents/cy2025-26/cmr-0626-e.pdf
https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2025-12/coffee.pdf
https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/gain/2026/06/brazil-coffee-annual
https://www.ncausa.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=Eeo61PXHEWI%3d&portalid=56
