Two numbers reset the picture in the first half of 2026. AirDNA cut its US supply-growth forecast almost in half between December and July, and Spain’s Supreme Court struck down the national rental registry the European compliance debate had been built around. Below are the verified vacation rental market statistics behind both, plus European booking volumes, Q2 platform results and manager-level pricing data.
Vacation Rental Market Statistics: Five Numbers
How Big Is the Vacation Rental Market in 2026?
Two research houses put the global figure near USD 100 billion for 2026. Both measure vendor revenue under their own scope definitions.
| Research firm | 2025 value | 2026 value | Forecast | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precedence Research | USD 97.85 Bn | USD 101.37 Bn | USD 138.74 Bn (2035) | 3.55% |
| Grand View Research | USD 101.7 Bn | USD 106.5 Bn | USD 121.9 Bn (2033) | 3.7% |
Source: Precedence Research, updated 3 July 2026; Grand View Research, 2025 base year. CAGR periods are 2026–2035 and 2026–2033.
The two land about 4% apart on the 2025 base and agree on direction: low single-digit compound growth, not a boom.
Both name Europe the largest region. Precedence Research values the European vacation rental market at USD 32.11 billion in 2025, growing to USD 48.06 billion by 2035 at a 3.75% compound rate.
Airbnb alone booked USD 27.2 billion in gross booking value in one quarter of 2026. Gross booking value counts the full transaction price paid by travellers, including hotels and services; market sizing counts accommodation revenue under a narrower scope. The two are not interchangeable, a distinction that runs through most online travel booking data.
US Vacation Rental Market Statistics: A Forecast Revised Mid-Year
AirDNA published a 2026 outlook in December 2025 and revised it in a midyear outlook on 8 July 2026. Available-listings growth was the figure that moved.
| Metric (US, full-year 2026) | Dec 2025 outlook | Jul 2026 midyear outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Available listings | +4.6% | +2.7% |
| Demand | Not published | +2.7% |
| Occupancy | Easing about 1% | 57.4% average |
| ADR | +1.5% | Not restated |
| RevPAR | Not published | +2.9% |
Source: AirDNA 2026 Outlook Report, 16 December 2025, and AirDNA 2026 Midyear Outlook, 8 July 2026. All figures are forecasts for calendar 2026, not recorded results.
Bram Gallagher, AirDNA’s Director of Economics and Forecasting, attributed the slower listing growth to mortgage rates moving back above 6% after renewed inflation, delaying investment.
The forecast 57.4% occupancy sits above the 57.0% pre-pandemic average AirDNA cites. Even the December projection of 4.6% ran well below the roughly 20% peak expansion the firm recorded in 2021–2022.
Which US Markets Lead on RevPAR Growth?
Three domestic city markets posted the strongest revenue per available rental growth so far in 2026, each where supply tightened.
International demand is running the other way. AirDNA reports US short-term rental demand from international travellers 12% below last spring, with the steepest declines in Canada, down 32% from 2024 levels, and parts of Western Europe.
European Vacation Rental Market Statistics: Platform Nights
Eurostat collects guest-night data directly from Airbnb, Booking and Expedia, the only official non-vendor measure of the category. A guest night reflects both length of stay and party size.
| Period | Guest nights booked via platforms | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Full-year 2025 | 951.6 million | +11.4% vs 2024 |
| Q4 2025 | 172.3 million | +10.9% vs Q4 2024 |
| Q1 2026 | 144.3 million | +9.7% vs Q1 2025 |
Source: Eurostat, dataset tour_ce_omr, released 2 July 2026. EU totals for nights booked via Airbnb, Booking and Expedia.
Those 951.6 million guest nights in 2025 corresponded to 85.4 million stays, an average of 11 guest nights per booking. Q1 2026 volume also ran 16.6% above the same quarter of 2024.
Source: Eurostat, guest nights spent in short-stay accommodation booked via online platforms, full-year 2025.
Concentration is severe at the regional level. In Q4 2025 the ten most-booked NUTS 2 regions sat in just three countries: five in Spain, three in France and two in Italy. Andalucia led with 9.9 million nights, ahead of the Canarias at 8.2 million and Île-de-France at 7.2 million.
Q2 2026 Platform Results
All three major platforms reported gross bookings growth in the low-to-mid teens for the June quarter. Volume metrics are defined differently by each company and should not be compared directly.
| Company | Gross bookings | Revenue | Volume metric |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings | USD 51.0 Bn (+9%) | Not compared here | Room nights +5% |
| Expedia Group | USD 33.9 Bn (+12%) | USD 4.3 Bn (+14%) | 111.5 M booked room nights (+6%) |
| Airbnb | USD 27.2 Bn (+16%) | USD 3.6 Bn (+17%) | 148.3 M nights and seats booked (+10%) |
Source: company Q2 2026 earnings releases, quarter ended 30 June 2026. Gross bookings are total company figures across all products, not vacation-rental-only.
The alternative accommodation split is where the three diverge. Booking.com’s alternative accommodation room nights grew 4%, below its own 5% total room-night growth, leaving the segment at roughly 37% of Booking.com room nights, unchanged from Q2 2025. Booking Holdings attributed part of that to the Middle East conflict and to faster growth at Agoda and Priceline. Active alternative accommodation listings still rose 8% to 9.1 million. That mix took the former Priceline group about a decade to build.
Expedia’s 6% room-night growth against 12% gross-bookings growth points to rate and mix rather than volume, with ADR booked at USD 220.60. Its Vrbo vacation rental brand ran a May sale that exceeded USD 1 billion in bookings. Expedia Group raised full-year guidance after the quarter.
Airbnb reported adjusted EBITDA of USD 1.3 billion at a 35% margin, with nearly 45% of issues that begin with its AI assistant resolved without a human agent and support cost per booking down about 16%. More than 150,000 homes across FIFA World Cup 2026 host cities were listed for the first time. The company Brian Chesky co-founded raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to at least the mid teens.
Vacation Rental Market Statistics on Regulation
Regulation (EU) 2024/1028 applies from 20 May 2026. It requires hosts to hold a verifiable national registration number, platforms to verify it, and activity data to be reported to a single digital entry point in each member state. It does not decide where rentals are legal.
Spain moved the other way one day earlier. The Third Section of the Supreme Court’s Contentious-Administrative Chamber, in Judgment 620/2026 of 19 May 2026, partially annulled Royal Decree 1312/2024 on a challenge brought by the Generalitat Valenciana, ruling that the state lacked the competence to run a national registry duplicating those the autonomous communities already maintain.
The state NRUA number and article 10 of the decree fell with it. The digital single window, the platform data-transmission duty and regional tourist registers survived. Compliance did not disappear; it moved down a level of government.
Who Manages Vacation Rentals Now?
Rentals United and PriceLabs published a 2026 Short-Term Rental Outlook Report in May 2026, drawing on a sample of more than 362,000 properties in the Rentals United network plus PriceLabs market data. It puts professional property managers at two-thirds or more of supply in four markets.
| Market | Professional manager share | Dynamic pricing occupancy gap |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 72% | Gap reported, not quantified |
| United States | 69% | +13 percentage points |
| Spain | 67% | Not reported |
| United Kingdom | 65% | Not reported |
| Italy | Not reported | +30 percentage points |
Source: Rentals United and PriceLabs, 2026 Short-Term Rental Outlook Report, May 2026, covering 2025 data. Shares are per-market and do not sum to one total.
In Italy, properties on high-frequency dynamic pricing recorded 68% occupancy against 38% for static-rate listings. Channel data from the same network showed HomeToGo bookings up 187% and Plum Guide up 40%, against slower growth at longer-established travel brands.
US booking behaviour shifted in the same period. Average length of stay rose almost 10% to 4.42 days, while the average booking window shortened 3% to 22.33 days.
Consolidation and Where Supply Goes Next
Casago completed its acquisition of Vacasa on 1 May 2025, creating a company managing more than 40,000 properties across North America, Belize, Costa Rica and the Caribbean. On 20 August 2026 it announced that all former Vacasa markets had been sold to local franchise owners or other ownership structures, with final transitions expected to conclude in September 2026.
Japan is the clearest signal on the demand side. JNTO recorded 42,683,600 international arrivals in 2025, up 15.8% from 36.86 million in 2024 and the highest annual total on its records. Arrivals from 20 of 23 major source markets set new highs.
Source: Japan National Tourism Organization, annual international arrivals, calendar year 2025.
FAQs
How big is the vacation rental market in 2026?
Precedence Research values it at USD 101.37 billion for 2026, growing to USD 138.74 billion by 2035 at a 3.55% compound rate. Grand View Research puts 2026 at USD 106.5 billion. Both measure accommodation revenue, not platform gross bookings.
Is the US vacation rental market oversaturated in 2026?
AirDNA’s July 2026 midyear outlook forecasts available listings and demand both growing 2.7%, with occupancy averaging 57.4% and RevPAR up 2.9%. Supply is not outpacing demand, unlike the roughly 20% listing expansion AirDNA recorded in 2021–2022.
Is Airbnb declining, as some Reddit threads suggest?
Not by its reported figures. Airbnb posted USD 27.2 billion in Q2 2026 gross booking value, up 16%, revenue up 17% to USD 3.6 billion, and 148.3 million nights and seats booked, up 10%. Reddit host posts describe individual listings, not the platform.
Do Spanish hosts still need the NRUA registry number?
No. Supreme Court Judgment 620/2026 of 19 May 2026 annulled the state Single Rental Registry procedure and the NRUA requirement. Regional tourist register codes, municipal licences and platform data-sharing obligations remain in force.
Are Reddit occupancy reports a reliable data source?
No. Reddit posts are self-selected and self-reported, describing single properties in single markets. Occupancy benchmarks require a defined sample and period, such as AirDNA’s 57.4% US forecast for calendar 2026 or PriceLabs market data.
Sources
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20260702-1
https://news.airbnb.com/airbnb-q2-2026-financial-results/
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/steady-demand-and-slower-new-supply-define-us-short-term-rentals-in-2026-airdna-finds-302820776.html
https://www.companieshistory.com/travel-business-statistics/
